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Growing apprehensions exist about the possibility of warfare between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his government's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have often been tense. After a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have directly stated control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

Amid persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on recently that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown training completions of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the British military before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries stayed at odds.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the conflict was over – a move that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's previous civil war in the northern region.

But relations have subsequently deteriorated again.